Global Warming. Heat wave, drought… Know everything about the climate in your region in 2050
While global warming will affect all regions of the planet, it will not do so in the same way everywhere. This is certainly the case at the global level, as each region of the world will have to deal with very specific impacts, but it is also the case at the French level.
Because if there is a structural increase in temperature in all regions of France, this increased heat will not be reflected in the same way or with the same intensity everywhere. Each region has its own challenges related to its geographical location, geology or pre-existing climate. What issues Western France we invite you to come back.
Brittany: Will the region be more protected than the rest of France?
Yes, but this does not mean that he will be completely saved. Thus, the temperature recorded in the region in 2050 will be 1.1-1.4°C higher than the temperature recorded between 1976 and 2005, depending on the sector. This is indeed less than in other regions of France, but it is equal to the warming observed worldwide since the end of 19e century, with the results we know.
In the future, Brittany will also be more affected by droughts and fires, while sea level rise will significantly affect some coastal areas.
Also read: Heat waves, fires… What awaits Britain with global warming
Normandy: How will rising sea levels affect the coastline?
Many coastal sectors located below sea level or at very low elevations will witness chronic flooding at high tidal surges in the future. This is especially true of the marshes of the Channel Center or the Seine estuary. Sandy beaches are also expected to erode more and more.
Moreover, like other regions, the temperature level will rise in Normandy. The increase will be between 1.1 and 1.5°C and will occur, among other things, through more frequent and intense heat waves.
Also read: Heat wave, rising waters… What awaits Normandy with global warming
Pays de la Loire: how will fire risk develop in the future?
As in all regions of France, the risk of wildfires in the Pays de la Loire in 2050 will be greater than in the recent climate. The number of days when the forest weather index (which measures the risk of fires starting and spreading) will be greater than 40 “serious”) should thus increase by 3-10 days per year (compared to the average level between 0 and 5 at the end of the 20th centurye century).
This increased fire risk will be structurally associated with higher temperatures (1.3-1.6°C higher than in 1976 and 2005) and increasingly dry soils.
Also read: Heat waves, fires… What awaits the Pays de la Loire with global warming
Ile-de-France: How frequent will heat waves be in 2050?
The highly urbanized Ile-de-France is particularly vulnerable to heat waves due to the phenomenon of urban heat islands.
But these heat waves will become more frequent and intense in the future. Data from Météo France’s Drias project
Thus, by mid-century, Ile-de-France will experience 15-20 days more heat waves than in the recent climate (which recorded 7-8 per year).
In addition, Ile-de-France will experience more and more fires and see its land become increasingly dry, especially due to a faster evaporation cycle and less rain, which is less evenly distributed throughout the year. Also read:
Heat waves, fires… What awaits Ile-de-France with global warming
Hauts-de-France: How high are temperatures in France’s northernmost region?
Hauts-de-France will experience lower average temperature increases than many other regions of mainland France.
The average temperature recorded in the region between 2040 and 2070 will be 1.3-1.6°C higher than in 1976-2005. This increase is at the same level as would be observed in Ile-de-France or even Centre-Val-de-Loire, but is much lower than that measured in the south of the country, where increases will occur. often exceeds 2 ° C.
This increased heat will lead to more severe drought episodes and greater fire risk, among other consequences. Also read:
Temperatures, drought… What awaits Hauts-de-France with global warming
Cent-Val de Loire: will forest fires become more frequent? Yes, and the region will be one of the ones to see this risk increase the most. The number of days when the meteorological forest index (which measures the risk of fires starting and spreading) will be greater than 40“serious”) will increase by 5-15 days by the middle of the XXI century ecentury At the end of the 20th century e
century, this number was between 1 and 5 days.
Like other metropolitan regions, the Centre-Val de Loire region will be affected by an increase in the number of heat waves, as well as longer and more intense drought periods. Also read:
Fires, high heat… What awaits Center-Val de Loire with global warming
Grand Est: will frosts and colds disappear?
No, not completely, but they will become significantly rarer. In 2050, the number of cold wave days – the number of episodes in which the minimum temperature is 5°C below normal for several days – will be halved in the region. So, depending on the sector, it will vary from 6 to 10, from 2 to 5. The number of frosty days will decrease significantly, as will the snow cover in the massifs of the region.
The reduction of these indicators is, of course, related to the structural increase in temperature, which in 2050 will be 1.6 to 1.9°C higher than that recorded in 1976-2005. Also read:
Heat waves, rain… What awaits the Grand Est region with global warming
Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes: What level of snow cover should we expect in 2050?
At a much lower level than the present climate. For example, the number of days in which 50 cm of snow will be recorded in the Mont-Blanc massif at an altitude of 1800 m will increase from 129 days to 105 days. In Vanoise, the number of these days will decrease from 109 to 87.
This decrease in snowfall is a sign of expected temperature increases in the region, which will be slightly greater than many other metropolitan areas. Thus, the average temperature recorded in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes between 2040 and 2070 will be 1.7-2.1°C higher than that recorded in 1976-2005. days with high fire risk. Also read:
Heat waves, snow cover… What awaits the Auvergne-Rhône-Alps with global warming
New Aquitaine: what is the fire risk in the future? New Aquitaine, already regularly affected by forest fires, will see this risk increase by 2050. The number of days the forest weather index (which measures the risk of fires starting and spreading) will be greater than 40 (this is the considered level)“serious”) will be 5-10 days higher than at the end of the 20th century e
century (less than 5 days).
In addition, the risk of drought will increase in the region, the temperature will increase by 1.4-1.7°C compared to the level of 1976-2005. Also read:
Fires, temperatures… What awaits New Aquitaine with global warming
Occitanie: Will Mediterranean episodes become more dangerous in the future?
Yes, but not necessarily more often. Global warming, which accelerates the water cycle, will indeed make each extreme rainfall episode more intense. Météo France notes that this intensification in Occitania “should be at the level of a few percent of daily accumulations due to the degree of warming”.
This global warming will also be around 1.6-2°C compared to the 1976-2005 period. Among other things, it will carry more intense and longer heat waves. Also read:
Mediterranean episodes, heat wave… What awaits Occitania with global warming
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté: will the frost disappear?
No, not necessarily, but the number of frosty days will still decrease dramatically in the region, which is currently one of the most affected regions along with the Grand Est. In general, the number of frosty days in the plains will decrease by a third, from 50 to 70, from 35 to 52. The number of snowy days in the massifs will also decrease.These indicators should be compared with a temperature increase of 1.6-2°C by the end of the 20th year. ecentury and the middle of the XXI centurye
the largest increases are expected in arrays. Also read:
Temperatures, rains… What awaits Burgundy-Franche-Comte with global warming
Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur: will the summers be absolutely scorching?Yes, figuratively and probably literally. The Paca region will indeed see average temperatures increase by 1.6-2.2°C by the middle of the 21st century. e
century that will involve increasingly frequent occurrence of heat waves. The number of days the region will live under this regime may increase from 20 to 45 days against the current level of 3 to 13 days depending on the sector.
Rising temperatures will also exacerbate drought episodes and increase fire risk. Also read:
Heat wave, extreme rains… What awaits the PACA region with global warming
Corsica: Will the region’s insular nature affect its climate fate?
Yes, partially. Because with a temperature increase of between 1.4°C and 1.9°C between now and 2050, Corsica is slightly better than the Paca region, even though it is further north (and therefore potentially affected by lower temperature increases). The increase in the number of days of heat waves is comparable to what will be observed in the central part of France.
Corsica will also see a lower risk of fire growth than will always occur in the Paca region. Also read:
More heat waves and fires: what awaits Corsica with global warming
Methodology Western France
As part of the Drias* project, it studied the regionalized climate scenarios established by Météo France and deduced how the climate of different regions would develop between 1976-2005 and 2040-2070.
The scenario on which these projections are based is that the level of greenhouse gas emissions will stabilize only in the middle of the century and then decline slightly. It is therefore an intermediate scenario and assumes that certain scenarios will lead to more significant changes than those mentioned above.