Weather News: 4-week trend: Good weather for the February holidays? – METEO CONSULT – DETAILED 15-DAY WEATHER FORECASTS
The expected return of ocean disturbances in the first week of February appears to have been further delayed by the prevailing anticyclonic conditions, which will be synonymous with continued fairly cold and dry weather. The rise in temperature would also be delayed, which would initially allow good snow retention in the mountains.
Early weather forecasts for February called for a more or less rapid return of ocean disturbances with the arrival of rain and wind. But so far, this scenario is not very reliable, because the high pressures should resist for longer than expected. This development would then be synonymous with the maintenance of calm and dry weather, relatively cool and fairly sunny in the mountains, at least in the first ten days of February.
Week of January 30 – February 5: still fairly calm and fairly cold weather
The end of January and the beginning of February will still be under the sign of fairly calm weather with an anticyclone located near Brittany. However, the first days of the week will be marked by the passage of rain and snow disturbances in the northeast of the country on the edge of active depressions circulating in Germany. This situation would be favorable for maintaining a few snowy episodes at low altitudes in the east, dry air in the west and a strong mistral in the southeast.
After these few mixed days, the anticyclone will swell again over France, extending into the North Sea, bringing dry and still fairly cold air, making for overnight frosts when skies clear later in the week. The temperature will be below the seasonal average in the southern half, and only seasonal in the northern half.
Confidence in this general evolution is good, but the chronology and intensity of expected rain-snow disturbances in the northeast needs clarification.
Last week of February 6 to 12: anticyclonic weather may persist
There is a change in the forecast for the first half of February. Although the disturbed ocean current is expected to return, it appears that the anticyclone is resisting throughout western Europe and France for longer than expected. This evolution will be synonymous with the maintenance of dry weather, with quite a lot of sun in the mountains and likely cloudy and foggy in the plains. May remain seasonal with temperature inversions: a winter anticyclone although it is milder at higher altitudes, it is often accompanied by cold weather in the plains and valleys. These conditions would allow to benefit from good weather conditions in the mountains and good maintenance of snow cover due to dry weather and night frost. This would be very good news for the school holidays.
Reliability remains low because this change in evolution needs to be confirmed. But till date everything is the same scenario which prevails.
Week of February 13-19: showers in the north, limited reliability
Validity is very limited for the second week of February holidays. The general flow may move more to the western sector, allowing some disturbances to pass through. These may mainly concern the northern half of the country, while the south will remain under the protection of the anticyclone. Temperatures will be generally warmer, rising above seasonal averages.
Week of February 20-26: Towards a possible deterioration?
The weather may turn sour in the last week of the school holidays, but the chronology of riots on this deadline of course remains very uncertain. After a few days of great mildness, the flow will move into the northwest sector, carrying unsettled and cooler air. Later, the snow would return to our mountains with much lower temperatures.
Note that the weather scenario for this February is gradually changing in favor of drier and less mild weather than originally predicted. High pressure weather would be especially good for mountain vacationers. But this situation could lead to less rain than expected, which is bad news for groundwater recharge, which is very low across France (almost 80% deficit).
The trend is expressed our seasonal forecasts may change with a less humid month than originally expected for February.
See also
The climate of February in France: an extreme month
Power cut: More favorable situation according to RTE
Seasonal forecast: mild and wet February before a dry spring
