Large oil reserves face the problem of reducing consumption

Taking into account the most conservative estimates, the known and quantitative reserves of hydrocarbons remaining on Earth today correspond to the total amount we have consumed since the beginning of the oil era, that is, from the end of the 19th century until now.^e century This is equivalent to 150-160 GB¹ oil equivalent (eq.). These amounts are four times higher if we take into account as yet unmeasured reserves (600 Gt), although some of these resources may be difficult to exploit for geological, economic or geopolitical reasons. According to recently published unpublished inventories², the world’s fossil fuel reserves are equal to 3.5 trillion tons of greenhouse gases (GHG). If these gases are released, they will jeopardize international climate goals³.

Containing data on more than 50,000 sites in approximately 90 countries, this inventory serves to provide the information needed to manage the phase-out of fossil fuels. In particular, it suggests that the US and Russia each have enough reserves to blow the entire global carbon budget, even if all other countries stopped production immediately. It also shows that the world’s strongest source of emissions is from the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia.

“Peak oil” will not happen

” We grew up with the idea of ​​”peak oil”. [“oil peak” en anglais]He thinks there will be an inevitable shortage in 2010-2020Antoine Le Solleuz explains. This concept no longer exists because oil companies have invested so much in the exploration of hydrocarbons that they discover new fields every year. We are now in a situation where possible oil reserves exceed consumption.»

We are now in a situation where possible oil reserves exceed consumption.

” The concept of peak oil is derived from the concept of oil reserves Olivier Gantois adds. Oil reserves are the volumes of oil that we declare, define and know how to produce with today’s technologies and today’s prices as oil reserves. The price of a barrel is $85, but if we have some reserves that cost $100/barrel to produce, we don’t count them as reserves because it’s not economical. This means that if tomorrow we have the same amount of hydrocarbons, but the price of a barrel falls to $120/barrel (as in July last year), these volumes are economical and can be considered reserves. »

These oil sources are classified as conventional and unconventional. Among conventional sources, the oil in the source rock migrates into permeable formations from which it can be extracted relatively easily.

Unconventional sources differ in that the reserve is either in a nearly impermeable reservoir or in the source rock itself, from which it must be extracted – which is technically more difficult. The discovery of unconventional fields, the most famous of which is shale gas (“shale gasin English), has quadrupled in recent years compared to the beginning of the century, and these sources have even become the norm in some countries. Indeed, they have enabled countries like the United States to become energy independent, thus allowing them to distance themselves from conflicts in the Middle East.

In addition to the United States, unconventional deposits have also been discovered in Canada, France, Great Britain, Poland, Russia and Algeria. Unlike other European countries, France has decided not to exploit these deposits. Because it should be noted that we are talking about the use of methods such as hydraulic fracturing, which are currently prohibited by law for unconventional sediments.⁴.

The danger of miscalculations

“Possible reserves (90% uncertainty), probable reserves (50% uncertainty) and proven reserves (10% uncertainty), Antoine Le Solleuz says.For example, Venezuela is still considered so The largest estimated reserves, although this cannot be confirmed by other countries, since the estimates are published by the Venezuelan authorities themselves. There are also countries that are self-sufficient and refuse to involve large private energy companies such as BP, Shell, Total and Exxon. This allows them to evaluate are their own resources, which frees them from the stock market and other economic systems. This applies, for example, to Saudi Arabia, where only the national company, Saudi Aramco, is allowed to operate.»

However, a country may have estimateswrongintentional or not, this can create instability in stock markets, as other countries cannot compare themselves to each other and thus set a real price. Big oil companies publish their estimates to gain investor confidence: if they underestimate or overestimate their reserves, they face direct consequences in financial markets.

For example, BP and Shell have had to deal with scandals over the overestimation of their proven reserves in conventional reservoirs. The result in the financial markets: these companies were no longer reliable. However, this financial and scientific confidence is crucial because it is key to sustaining financial investments in exploration and production. These investments are becoming increasingly important, using increasingly sophisticated geophysical techniques, increasingly complex wells, in increasingly extreme geological contexts.

“If we continue to consume as we do today, we won’t be able to answer the question of reserves in a few years (and we shouldn’t in the first place).Supports Antoine Le Solleuz.Because the more you invest, the more you will earn. And oil companies continues to invest.