Weather News: Will the cold continue in February? – METEO CONSULT – DETAILED 15-DAY WEATHER FORECASTS
Contrasting with the start of an extremely mild month in France, moderate cold has prevailed for about ten days. What’s trending for the next few weeks as winter break approaches? Here to stay cool?
January started unusually mild with an average of 9.8°C, making the first decade of January the warmest on record since 1947. In the middle of the month, the situation changed radically with the drop in temperature, and it even brought us like this. Below average for January, but still a moderate anomaly of 2 to 4°C. For zone A (Besançon, Bordeaux, Clermont, Dijon, Grenoble, Limoges, Lyon, Poitiers) there are prospects for the coming weeks with the approach of the school holidays starting on February 4.
A cold but quiet last January weekend
Later it snows on the plain or drier this weekend due to the return of high pressure from the west and the establishment of a continental northeasterly wind this weekend. However, as we have seen in recent days, high pressure does not rhyme with good weather in winter. Therefore, fog and low clouds will be frequent and may not lift in some areas. This often limits frosts, but afternoon temperatures hardly rise. Thus, according to our forecasts, Sunday can be placed in the 2nd position of the coldest days of the year, with an average temperature of only 1.3°C, after 0.3°C on January 22.
There is a risk of snow on the plains early next week
The anticyclone will show some signs of weakening on Monday and Tuesday under the pressure of a disturbance from the North Sea. Being of maritime origin and therefore milder but moister, this air will oppose the cold ambient air still present in the large northeastern quarter of the country. In this context, the risk of several centimeters of snow at low altitude cannot be excluded. Accumulations in terrain can exceed 10 cm in the Vosges, Jura and northern Alps. The regions most affected are Grand-Est, Bourgogne Franche-Comté and Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. If temperatures gradually rise to national seasonal norms, there will be strong differences between the east, where cold air will resist, and the west, where milder air will allow temperatures to approach 10°.
Gradual return to seasonal normals for early February
High will take position over France by the middle of next week. The weather will be calm again and there will be no precipitation. So the air mass at (1500m) altitude will increase by about ten degrees between Sunday and next Friday. However, this increase will be very gradual due to the persistence and dominance of low clouds, which will limit its diurnal evolution. Temperatures will be close to normal for the season, this time very seasonally cold.
A return to average mildness and humidity for the first week of the holidays
A gradual return to the disrupted Atlantic regime has been confirmed from next weekend (Saturday 4th and Sunday 5th February). The anticyclone will retreat to the south of Europe and cause disturbances in the northern half. A north-south gradient will occur with the southern third sheltered from rain. The flow tending to the southwest sector, the temperatures will rise quite significantly. From Sunday 3rd February to Sunday 5th February our temperature should rise from 4 to 6.5°C, which should put us around 1°C above seasonal norms. Excessive melting is not expected, so the snow should resist in the mountains, which is good news for the resorts, and will often fall above 1500 meters from the Alps to the Jura. Mid-mountain resorts (Vosges, Massif Central) should suffer more from this melting. Finally, the Pyrenees should experience fairly dry weather with little snowfall.
The cold we are currently experiencing will therefore continue and even intensify this weekend, with Sunday being among the coldest of the year so far. Next week, temperatures will slowly rise to slightly above normal. This milder and wetter trend joins us for early February 4 week trend and ours seasonal forecastthe beginning of the month.