What will the weather be like in Toulon in 2050?

BFMTV.com collected data from Météo France’s Clidiag platform, which details expected climate changes by mid-century.

What kind of climate should Toulonnais expect? In 2050? If 2022 is over the warmest year on record Significant changes are expected in the history of weather records in the coming decades. Météo France has provided the French with its forecasts for each municipality new platform.

Average temperatures, intensity of heat waves, risk of drought… BFMTV.com has compiled some of these indicators to give you an idea of ​​what to expect by 2050. All predictions made here average scenario our greenhouse gas emissions stabilize at low levels by the end of the century.

For each indicator, Météo France provides a “range of possibilities” with an expected average value, as well as a low and high value. These data are compared with the current reference period corresponding to 1976-2005.

“This is a standard period of 30 years from the recent past, which corresponds to the most recent period in historical simulations,” he explains. Meteo France.

In Toulon, the scenario predicts an increase of between 1 and 3°C in any season of the year.

Between 1976 and 2005, the average winter temperature in Toulon was 7.5°C. The scenario projected by Météo-France in 2050 implies an increase of more than 2°C for this season, according to the highest scenario. Thus, the average winter temperature will be 9.6 ° C. The lowest scenario still implies a temperature rise of more than one degree, with an average winter temperature of 8.6°C.

This increase in temperature is more pronounced in summer, with a temperature increase of 3°C compared to the reference period. Although average summer temperatures in Toulon were recorded at 22.7°C until 2005, they could reach 25.5°C in the most pessimistic scenario.

The Toulon region, accustomed to not-so-cold temperatures in winter, could become even less cold by 2050.

From 1976 to 2005, Toulon experienced an average of one cold day per year. A figure that could remain unchanged until 2050, according to the highest value of the scenario envisaged by Météo France. The lowest hypothetical value indicates that the city will not experience any cold for thirty years.

Rather, heat waves like these who touched Toulon last summer will multiply.

On average, over the past fifty years, the city of Toulon has not been affected by any heat waves during the year. A figure that can fall to one depending on the lowest value of the Météo-France scenario. The highest value indicates that Toulon may experience 9 days of heat wave in 2050.

Like a very large part of the country, the region of Toulon was also affected severe drought and low precipitation levels in 2022.

According to Météo France projections for 2050, precipitation should increase in winter, with 45 mm more rain in the winter season compared to the reference period in the highest scenario.

On the contrary, precipitation may be less in summer. Although Toulon recorded 103 mm of summer rainfall during the reference period, the lowest value of the Météo France scenario predicts only 67 mm of summer rainfall in 2050.

However, the values ​​are subject to “large uncertainty depending on the models”, warns Drias, the climate service responsible for the forecasts. Uncertainty is associated with “the special position of our country in the climate transition zone on a continental scale between the increase of precipitation in the north and decrease in the south”.

Rising temperatures and drought episodes favor vegetation fires, particularly in large numbers, in southern France this summer. in the Gironde or southeast.

The city of Toulon has been living with the risk of forest fires for several days now. The situation may worsen by 2050.

Météo France considers a period of up to 40 days with a significant forest fire risk in Toulon, against 22 according to the reference figure, in the case of a more degraded climate scenario. However, the median value of the scenario estimates that the risk will increase by 7 days to 29.

Note that there are about ten other indicators on the site that show the climate in 2050, such as the number of frosty days or warm nights. Meteo-France Commune of Clidiag.

How is Clidiag Commune data collected?

The indicators set by the Météo France platform are based on data from Drias, a climate service launched in France in 2012. Clidiag Commune aims to simplify this large dataset of three different values, offering one horizon (2050) and a single scenario. . “It’s a way to clear the ground and get a first-hand view of the main issues and developments affecting the city,” explains Patrick Josse, head of climatology and its climate services at Météo France.

Theophile Magoria and Emilie Roussey

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