What will the weather be like in Lille in 2050?
BFMTV.com gathered data from Météo-France’s Climadiag platform, which details expected climate changes by mid-century.
What climate should await the inhabitants of Lille in 2050? If 2022 is already the warmest year ever measured in the history of weather records, significant changes are expected in the coming decades. Météo-France has made its forecasts for each municipality available to the French through a new platform.
Average temperatures, intensity of heat waves, risk of drought… BFMTV.com has compiled some of these indicators to give you an idea of what to expect by 2050. All projections made here are based on scenario medians. our greenhouse gas emissions stabilize at low levels by the end of the century.
For each indicator, Météo-France provides a “range of possibilities” with an expected average value, as well as a low and high value. These data are compared with the current reference period corresponding to 1976-2005.
“This is a standard period of 30 years from the recent past that corresponds to the most recent period in historical simulations,” explains Météo France.
About 3°C warmer in summer in 2050
In Lille, the Météo France scenario predicts an increase in average temperatures in 2050, regardless of season.
Thus, in the highest assumption of the Meteo-France scenario, winter temperatures could increase by more than 2°C, increasing from 3.8°C during 1976–2005 to 5.9°C in the winter of 2050 .
This increase in summer temperatures is more pronounced, with an estimated increase of around 3 °C in the highest scenario established by Meteo-France. Thus, the average summer temperature will rise from 17.7°C to 20.5°C. The lowest scenario envisaged by Météo-France still includes an increase in temperature regardless of the season.
More frequent heat waves
The scenario provided by Météo-France assumes a change in the number of cold waves that occur in Lille each year.
Between 1976 and 2005, Lille experienced an average of four cold days a year. A figure that will change by 2050, according to Météo France’s scenario. The highest hypothesis predicts an increase in the number of cold wave days, i.e. 5 days per year in 2050. However, the lowest value of the scenario assumes that Lille will not experience any heat waves for another thirty years.
Conversely, heat waves will increase until 2050, although Lille was also affected by consecutive heat waves in 2022.
Lille experienced an average two-day heat wave during the reference period. A figure that will be multiplied by four according to the Météo-France median scenario for 2050. According to the highest hypothesis, Lille could even experience up to 15 heat waves per year for thirty years.
Increased precipitation in winter
Like a large part of the country, Lille has been affected by a major drought and lack of rain since the beginning of the year. In mid-August, the entire Nord department was even affected by water restriction measures.
According to Météo France’s forecasts for 2050, precipitation in Lille will increase in winter, with 217 mm of rain in winter in the highest scenario, against an average of 178 mm recorded in the reference period.
On the contrary, precipitation may be less in summer. Météo France’s lowest scenario predicts 154 mm of precipitation, against an average of 190 mm between 1976 and 2005. However, the highest scenario envisages 228 mm of rain during summer.
Therefore, it is difficult to accurately predict the evolution of precipitation in 2050. The values are subject to “large uncertainty depending on the models,” warns Drias, the climate service responsible for the forecasts. Uncertainty is associated with “the special position of our country in the climate transition zone on a continental scale between the increase of precipitation in the north and decrease in the south”.
Will there be plant fires in Lille in 2050?
Increasing temperatures and drought episodes favor vegetation fires, which are abundant in southern France this summer, particularly in Gironde or the Southeast.
Currently, Lille is more protected from these vegetation fires due to its density and the fact that there are few large green spaces in the city other than the Citadel park or the Jean-Baptiste Lebas garden.
But climate change could change the game. While the lowest value of the Météo-France scenario assumes no serious risk of wildfires in Lille until 2050, the median scenario, on the contrary, assumes two days of the year when this risk will be significant. The highest hypothesis predicts that vegetation fire risk will be significant eight days of the year.
It should be noted that other indicators close to it, such as the number of frosty days or the number of warm nights, showing the climate in 2050, are offered on the website of the Clidiag Commune of Meteo-France.
How is Clidiag Commune data collected?
The indicators set by the Météo-France platform are based on data from Drias, a climate service launched in France in 2012. Clidiag Commune aims to simplify this large data set by proposing a horizon (2050) and a single scenario, including three. different values.
“It’s a way of clearing the ground and getting a first-hand view of the main issues and developments affecting the municipality,” explains Patrick Josse, head of climatology and climate services at Météo-France.