What will the weather be like in Calais in 2050?

BFM TV. com collected data from Météo-France’s Climadiag platform, which details expected climate changes by mid-century.

What kind of climate should residents of Calais expect? In 2050? If 2022 is over the warmest year on record Significant changes are expected in the history of weather records in the coming decades. Météo France has provided the French with its forecasts for each municipality new platform.

Average temperatures, intensity of heat waves, risk of drought… BFMTV.com has compiled some of these indicators to give you an idea of ​​what to expect by 2050. All predictions made here average scenario our greenhouse gas emissions stabilize at low levels by the end of the century.

For each indicator, Météo France provides a “range of possibilities” with an expected average value, as well as a low and high value. These data are compared with the current reference period corresponding to 1976-2005.

“This is a standard period of 30 years from the recent past, which corresponds to the most recent period in historical simulations,” he explains. Meteo France.

In 2050, summers will be about 2.5°C warmer

Météo-France predicts that the average temperature in Calais will increase in 2050 regardless of season.

Thus, winter temperatures will increase by 2°C in the highest assumption of the Meteo-France scenario, increasing from 4.9°C during 1976-2005 to 5.9°C in the winter of 2050.

Météo-France also predicts a summer temperature increase of around 2.5°C under the highest assumption. Therefore, summer temperatures will reach an average of 19°C, compared to 16.6°C in the reference period. The lowest scenario envisaged by Météo-France still includes an increase in temperature regardless of the season.

More frequent heat waves in 2050

The scenario envisaged by Météo-France also assumes an evolution in the number of cold waves that occur each year in Calais.

Between 1976 and 2005, Calais experienced an average of three cold days a year. A figure that could remain the same in 2050, according to Météo-France’s most likely scenario. However, the median scenario predicts a decrease in the average annual number of cold wave days, which would then be limited to one day per year.

Conversely, although Hauts-de-France has been affected by consecutive heat waves this summer, heat waves will increase in the coming years.

During the reference period, Calais did not experience any heat waves during the year on average. But Météo-France’s median scenario calls for at least two days of heatwaves per year, and even up to five days in the highest scenario.

Increased precipitation in winter

Like much of the country, Pas-de-Calais faced a major drought and lack of rain in 2022. Water restrictions did not end until early December.

According to Météo France’s projections for 2050, winter precipitation in Calais will increase, with up to 233 mm of rain in 2050 in the highest scenario, where the city recorded only 186 mm during the reference period.

On the contrary, precipitation may be less in summer. Météo France’s lowest projection calls for 129 mm of summer precipitation by 2050, compared to the 1976-2005 summer average of 165 mm. However, the scenario with the highest value predicts up to 202 mm of summer rainfall over thirty years.

Therefore, it is difficult to accurately predict the evolution of precipitation in 2050. The values ​​are subject to “large uncertainty depending on the models,” warns Drias, the climate service responsible for the forecasts. The uncertainty is associated with “the special position of our country in the climate transition zone on a continental scale, between the increase of precipitation in the north and decrease in the south.”

Will plant fires occur in Calais in 2050?

Increasing temperatures and drought episodes favor vegetation fires, which are abundant in southern France this summer, particularly in Gironde or the Southeast.

Calais is currently protected from the risk of these wildfires. During the reference period, Météo France shows that, on average, the city was not affected by a significant risk of vegetation fires. A scenario that may change in the coming years.

The highest value of the Météo France scenario estimates that the risk of wildfires in Calais could be significant three days a year by 2050. However, the median scenario predicts that Calais will recover from this risk even within thirty years.

It should be noted that about ten other indicators, such as the number of frosty days or the number of warm nights, are proposed in the French Meteo Commune to indicate the climate in 2050.

How is Clidiag Commune data collected?

The indicators set by the Météo-France platform are based on data from Drias, a climate service launched in France in 2012. Clidiag Commune aims to simplify this large data set by proposing a horizon (2050) and a single scenario, including three. different values.

“It’s a way of clearing the ground and getting a first-hand view of the main issues and developments affecting the municipality,” explains Patrick Josse, head of climatology and climate services at Météo-France.

Théophile Magoria with Laurène Rocheteau

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