Mediterranean Sea: huge gas reserves treasure or poison? – Economic policy

Since the discovery of huge natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean and the start of exploration campaigns in the early 2000s, neighboring countries – Cyprus, Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Egypt and Libya – have been dreaming of a Norway-style model. . A country extremely rich thanks to gas reserves. But this almost unexpected windfall also reignites geopolitical tensions. At the heart of the issues and despite some desire for cooperation, we see the delimitation of maritime borders and exclusive economic zones (EEZ). The delimitation of and access to these EEZs is critical because it guarantees the coastal state’s “sovereign rights” for exploration, exploitation and management of the seabed and its subsoil. These economic zones can therefore quickly become real hens that lay golden eggs. The situation was further complicated as the reality on the ground dictated that the Mediterranean remained a closed and fragmented space between rival powers. Thus, Israel, Libya, Syria, and Turkey have overlapping EEZs and therefore must agree on the sharing of their waters.
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Since the discovery of huge natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean and the start of exploration campaigns in the early 2000s, neighboring countries – Cyprus, Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Egypt and Libya – have been dreaming of a Norway-style model. . A country extremely rich thanks to gas reserves. But this almost unexpected windfall also reignites geopolitical tensions. At the heart of the issues and despite some desire for cooperation, we see the delimitation of maritime borders and exclusive economic zones (EEZ). The delimitation of and access to these EEZs is critical because it guarantees the coastal state’s “sovereign rights” for exploration, exploitation and management of the seabed and its subsoil. These economic zones can therefore quickly become real hens that lay golden eggs. The situation was further complicated as the reality on the ground dictated that the Mediterranean remained a closed and fragmented space between rival powers. Thus, Israel, Libya, Syria, and Turkey have overlapping EEZs and therefore must agree on the sharing of their waters. Cyprus has become a central geostrategic player, both because it is well located in relation to discovered gas fields, and because it cannot exploit them alone, since several billion dollars are required to build infrastructures. The discovery of hydrocarbons off the coast of Cyprus has therefore resulted in a race to exploit gas and oil, with the island giving concessions to neighboring companies and countries. It hopes to become a hub for gas distribution to European markets. To achieve this, it relies on pipeline projects such as EastMed. With a length of 2,000 km, it will transport 9-11 billion cubic meters (m3) of gas per year from offshore reserves off the coast of Cyprus and Israel to Greece and then to the rest of the EU. Feasibility studies will be completed by the end of 2022 and will determine whether this project is viable. But nothing says that this project will see the light of day, because the prospects are pessimistic. The uncertainty over whether Cyprus will be able to export gas means that experts say it won’t happen before 2027 at best. Another country benefiting from this sinking financial crisis is Egypt, thanks to the resources of the Zohr field, which is valued at 850 billion. cubic meters, the largest in the Eastern Mediterranean. Egypt is also the only regional power with several liquefaction plants, making it easier to transport gas to European terminals. Egypt also signed an agreement with Israel and Cyprus and receives gas from these two countries. That’s enough to turn the country into a real energy hub. An unstable regional context and energy appetite fueled by recent shocks in the news mean things are unlikely to ease. One of the threats may come from Turkey. The country is very isolated and still heavily dependent on Russian gas. In addition, Turkey has not found any significant reserves in MEB and is trying to expand it. To get out of this impasse, Turkey often did not hesitate to carry out a show of force or threatening operations at sea against American or European drilling companies. Turkey also declared the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (TRNC). Despite not being recognized by the international community, Turkey has actually expanded its MEB considerably. The country also signed a maritime agreement with Lebanon. This greatly expanded Greece’s continental shelf in the Mediterranean Sea, eliminating its territorial claims around the island of Crete. Greece indeed claims that each of its islands, even the smallest, has its own continental shelf and therefore its own exclusive economic zone. It does not matter that the island in question is only a few kilometers away from the coast of Turkey. This is enough to slightly offend Turkey, which believes that a country’s continental shelf should be measured in relation to the length of its coastline. Two points of view that further increase the tension between the two countries. One of the most recent examples of the perceived tension comes in early December 2022, when Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Greece of Turkey’s long-range missile Typhoon. If Erdogan escalates tensions, Greece does the same as it arms itself and signs an arms deal with the US. Nevertheless, for international law professor Senem Aydın-Düzgit, interviewed by De Morgen, escalation is not realistic because the Turks know that military operations will be followed by reactions from other European countries, as well as from the United States. The war in Ukraine shows how absurd such a situation is. But Erdogan is above all a pragmatic politician. He knows he is isolated and has alienated many of the country’s partners. He also knows that there is rapprochement between Greece, the Republic of Cyprus, Israel and Egypt. All this being said, despite the good intentions of cooperation and a certain pragmatism, one can only observe that the growing interest of foreign powers in gas from the eastern Mediterranean is resulting in the militarization of the region. Therefore, cautious and promising gas field discovery risks not bringing peace and wealth to this region, but more conflict and discord. All this aside, these sometimes shale gas projects ignore the issue of global warming. The massive exploitation of gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean is indeed incompatible with the 2015 Paris climate agreement.