As the climate changes, are weather forecasts still valid?
This summer’s extreme weather events raise questions about the role of climate change and the reliability of weather warnings. From the beginning of the academic year, Lizabeth Born will start the preparation of a new national adaptation plan.
Record heatwaves, unprecedented droughts and devastating storms… Can we still trust weather forecasts with the increase in extreme weather events France has experienced this summer? The idea that climate change is progressing faster than predicted by scientists is disputed by many meteorologists and climatologists, which confirms it. News-Environment Fabio D’Andrea, researcher at the Laboratory of Dynamic Meteorology at the École Normale Supérieure in Paris. The scientist first emphasizes the importance of understanding the difference between weather and climate, it differs not only in terms of the timing of the weather forecast, but also in the nature of the forecast itself. .
Meteorology describes the weather at a given moment and provides a weather forecast for a short period of time (day, week, maximum three months). The weather forecast is determined such a place, such a time to guess such temperature, such precipitation, such atmospheric pressure, etc., remembers On the other hand, climate forecasting, statistical type, related to average probabilities of events studied over a long period of time. Climate models provide plausible scenarios of the sequence of meteorological conditions over several decades, especially depending on the evolution of greenhouse gas levels.
Weather models incorporate climate change data, but
It is conceivable that climate change may alter certain parameters of the atmosphere moderately and permanently, and that certain parts of prediction models may become less adapted to this new distribution of parameters due to climate change. However, there is no (current) research that actually shows whether the models’ predictions are better on the one hand because of climate change. There is no proof or any clue of this. On the other hand, there is no research that says that atmospheric predictability has changed due to climate change. Fabio D’Andrea explains.
There is no research that says atmospheric predictability has changed due to climate change.
Fabio D’Andrea, researcher at the Laboratory of Dynamic Meteorology
Climate change will not complicate the weather forecast any morealso sure Salvation, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, researcher at the Arology Laboratory of the University of Toulouse-CNRS. Because weather models are based on the equations of unchanging physics, they are universal. What changes are atmospheric conditions, temperature or humidity. However, the models incorporate this new fact of climate change and its consequences.
storms stay it is difficult to predict
Fabio D’Andrea also points out that the quality of weather forecasts has improved since the 1980s thanks to advances in observation (with satellite data), more accurate forecasting models and increased computing power. With France facing extreme climate episodes in 2022, pressure has mounted on Mto-France and its warnings. Since mid-June, the organization has predicted four heat waves affecting France, including this week. But after the deadly storms and high winds that hit Corsica on August 18, the public meteorological agency was chosen. Forecasters explained that they were was surprised by the rather exceptional values of the winds, which had never before been observed, and they gave birth to a meteorological phenomenon it is difficult to predict. Storms is the result of complex processes affecting a very limited geographical area. Therefore, it is difficult to predict such a phenomenon., explains Mto-France. Climatologists and geographers interviewed by the media, like expert Fabio D’Andrea, recognize the difficulties in anticipating storms. Storms are more difficult to predict and hit on a scale of several tens of kilometers. Potential storm conditions and intensity can be predicted, but statistical uncertainties must always be considered when dealing with these types of events.– says the researcher.
Higher-precision digital weather forecast models allow for improvements in the prediction of hazardous events, including thunderstorms. Thanks to its 1.3 km mesh, one of the models used by Mto-France, called Arome, is able to more accurately describe the physical processes responsible for the initiation of storms. However, if simulations by Arome in Corsica suggest a storm close to the observed other simulations it seemed to place more in the seaAccording to AFP, Mto-France, forecaster François Gourand said.
Better predict extreme events
After two consecutive rain-storm episodes that hit Corsica on August 18 and 19, the Council of Ministers approved the recognition of a state of natural disaster for the island on August 24. The decision was published on August 25. Official newspaper. In order to better predict these events, five meteorological mud acquisitions will also be carried out on Beaut Island.
With climate change, therefore, there are more extreme weather events, especially heavy rains and heat waves, warns Mteo-France. Therefore, there are more issues related to weather warnings to improve emergency response and public protection.
As announced in the Council of Ministers, from the beginning of the academic year, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne will start the preparation of the third national plan for adaptation to climate change (PNACC). This PNACC should emphasize work on improving event observation and forecasting, alert information and public awareness. The Minister of Ecological Transition and Territorial Unity, Christophe Bchu, will be responsible for its preparation in consultation with all stakeholders and with all relevant ministers. This necessary work to adapt to the impacts of environmental regulations will be paralleled by efforts to mitigate climate change by doubling the rate at which we reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.adds the government.
Article published on August 25, 2022
