what stands in the way and what we can expect with two days until the end of the climate summit

Negotiations enter the home field in Sharm el-Sheikh. Ten days after its start, COP27 in Egypt suffers from many divisions, especially between the North and South states. Ministers from 196 countries then take the stage to try to produce the most ambitious final climate communique possible. The summit is scheduled to end on Friday, but leaders often choose to spend extra time. Blockages, signs of hope and slight progress: here’s what to expect.

blockages

The targets are still not enough

Before the opening of the summit, the UN calculated that if the commitments of the states were followed, it could lead to an increase in the temperature of the planet by 2.6°C. Current policies are aimed at +2.8°C, far from the Paris Agreement’s goal of preventing global warming. “Significantly below 2°C” and to do everything no more than 1.5°C.

The flow of COP27 should not change. Only around thirty countries have revised their contributions upwards over the course of a year (see below), with one major omission: China, the largest emitter of CO2.

Funding is not up to par

The same feeling of stagnation in the matter of finances. Developing and/or vulnerable countries are demanding that rich countries meet their pledges to increase aid to climate change mitigation and adaptation to $100 billion per year.

According to the OECD, a total of $83.3 billion was paid in 2021. And still 70% were loans. This Wednesday, the European Union and four Member States pledged more than €1 billion for adaptation in Africa.

Also read – Climate: Why COP27 is so important for African countries

But according to a report by the COP presidency, countries in the South will need at least $2,000 billion a year to finance their climate action by 2030, almost half of which will have to come from external sources. Discussions have been started regarding the continuation of this funding beyond 2025 without hope of success this year as well.

“Loss and damage” sections

For the first time, a key demand from vulnerable countries has been put on the agenda: “loss and damage”, i.e. compensation for unavoidable damage caused by climate change. Several proposals have been made, but the positions are very clear. On the one hand, China and the G77, a group of developing countries, want COP27 “He decided to create a fund”with some “Operational principles and methods” determined at the latest at the next COP. On the other hand, the Nordic countries, including the US and the EU, say they are open to discussion, but refuse any specific fund.

Designated “facilitators” in this regard a “process” List options such as the creation of a fund, debt relief or even donations that could end in 2024. The final text of the project mentions only the “need for financial arrangements”.

Meanwhile, dozens of countries, including France, have pledged several tens of millions of euros. On Monday, Germany’s presidency of the G7 and about sixty sensitive countries as well “Global Climate Risk Shield” consists of the mobilization of insurance, and 200 million euros are given for the moment. “Loss and Damage Funding Announcements in the Millions, Needs in the Billions” He regrets the Climate Action Network.

Hopes

G20 confident of 1.5°C target

Nevertheless, there are several positive signal reasons. Or, at least, reasons to hope for a final text, especially on 1.5 ° C, without terrible failures. The first draft, published on the night of Monday to Tuesday, contains the principle “Urgency to act to keep +1.5°C target within reach”. But observers said that China and Saudi Arabia do not want the target mentioned in the final statement. Other countries see this as a step backwards.

The progress of the G20 in Bali assured. The leaders of these countries, which account for 80% of global CO2 emissions, have pledged to continue their efforts to stay below +1.5°C. Despite rising tensions between Beijing and Washington, Chinese and American Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden have pledged to resume climate cooperation.

… and about the release of fossils

Leaders at the G20 also called for a reduction in subsidies “inefficient” to fossil fuels. One can only hope that the final text advocates a move away from fossil fuels, not just coal, as was the case in Glasgow last year. According to The world India is moving in this direction, but the Gulf countries are slowing down.

The return of Brazil

Another reason for hope, if only words, came from Brazil’s new president, Lula. “Brazil is back” and “It will be a positive force in solving global challenges” he tweeted Tuesday evening. He stated that he wants to organize COP30 in the Amazon in 2035 and will fight for it. “zero deforestation” in this rain forest. And that’s with or without the resumption of international aid that was suspended in the face of his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro’s anti-environmental policies.

(Shy) progress

The EU wants to do more, and so does Mexico

European Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans said on Tuesday that the EU will reduce CO2 emissions slightly.“at least 57%” By 2030. By then, the target was at least 55%, even if some NGOs still considered it insufficient.

Also Read – COP27: Where is the Great Green Wall project mentioned by Emmanuel Macron?

Other nations have increased their targets, such as Mexico, which intends to reduce its emissions by 22% by 2030 and now aims for 35%. The increase was made possible by the signing of a $48 billion investment program with the United States and Canada, which plan to double clean energy production. Vietnam and Turkey have announced more ambitious goals.

Anti-methane announcements

Several have been announced to combat methane, a greenhouse gas responsible for a quarter of global warming, according to scientists.

• The UN has launched a program to use satellites to detect methane leaks and immediately alert countries and companies.
• The United States, the world’s largest gas producer, has announced plans to set tougher standards.
• A group of fossil fuel importing and producing countries (US, Canada, Japan, Norway, EU, UK and Singapore) have, among other things, “reduce” flaring (burning off the gas in industrial areas).

Partnership for the Energy Transition

In addition to one-time obligations, in particular “Partnership for a Just Energy Transition” tied with South Africa for the world’s 13th largest CO2 emitter. On Monday, South Africa’s president detailed a $98 billion investment plan over five years to begin phasing out coal. 8.5 billion dollars of this amount will be allocated by the United States, Great Britain, EU, Germany and France.

A similar deal was reached with Indonesia on Tuesday, with several wealthy nations pledging $20 billion over the next three to five years to help Jakarta ditch coal and push forward with its goal of carbon neutrality. This type of partnership should be replicated with India, Senegal and Vietnam.